TRYEUR rockets 0.99% on high volume
Turkish Lira/Euro (TRYEUR) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TRYEUR finished the month -6.16% lower at 0.1219 after surging 12 pips (0.99%) today on high volume. This is the biggest single-day gain in over a month. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TRYEUR as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 20 pips (1.66%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of 15 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for TRYEUR.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
After having been unable to move lower than 0.1200 in the prior session, the forex pair found buyers again around the same price level today at 0.1202. The last time this happened on Tuesday, TRYEUR actually lost -1.46% on the following trading day.
Crossing above the lower Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their downward momentum in the short-term and could now be heading back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 0.1263.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Up Close near high of period" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for TRY/EUR. Out of 494 times, TRYEUR closed lower 46.96% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.48% with an average market move of -0.61%.