TRYEUR closes higher for the 2nd day in a row
Turkish Lira/Euro (TRYEUR) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, TRYEUR ended the week 0.6% higher at 0.1347 after gaining 3 pips (0.22%) today on low volume. Closing above Thursday's high at 0.1346, the forex pair confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to 5 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TRYEUR as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 9 pips (0.67%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of 17 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for TRYEUR. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.1335 and 0.1353 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 0.1353 (R1).
Though the FX pair is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 0.1353 where further buy stops could get triggered. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 0.1335 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Closed above last periods high" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for TRY/EUR. Out of 392 times, TRYEUR closed lower 45.41% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.55% with an average market move of -0.49%.