TRYEUR runs into sellers around 0.1529 for the forth day in a row
Turkish Lira/Euro (TRYEUR) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TRYEUR finished the week 0.46% higher at 0.1524 after losing 2 pips (-0.13%) today on low volume. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TRYEUR as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 10 pips (0.65%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 10 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for TRYEUR. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.1513 and 0.1529 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 0.1529 (R1), TRY/EUR closed below it after spiking up to 0.1529 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels importance going forward. When prices bounced off a significant resistance level the last time on Tuesday, TRYEUR lost -0.07% on the following trading day. The currency was sold again around 0.1529 after having seen highs at 0.1527, 0.1527 and 0.1527 in the last three trading sessions. Obviously there is something going on at that level.
While the forex pair is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
With prices trading close to this year's high at 0.1537, upside momentum might accelerate should the FX pair be able to break out to new highs for the year.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Resistance R1" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for TRY/EUR. Out of 206 times, TRYEUR closed lower 53.40% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.85% with an average market move of -0.63%.