TRYEUR finds buyers around 0.1518 for the third day in a row
Turkish Lira/Euro (TRYEUR) Technical Analysis Report for Apr 16, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TRYEUR ended Tuesday at 0.1536 gaining 12 pips (0.79%). Closing above Monday's high at 0.1535, the forex pair confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to 9 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TRYEUR as at Apr 16, 2019):
Tuesday's trading range has been 26 pips (1.71%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 41 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for TRYEUR. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.1517 and 0.1550 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
Even with a weak opening the FX pair managed to close above the previous day's open and close, forming a bullish Engulfing Candle. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Tweezer Bottom.
The currency found buyers again today around 0.1518 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 0.1518 in the prior session and at 0.1517 two days ago. The last time this happened on April 10th, TRYEUR actually lost -0.83% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling could speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 0.1517 where further sell stops might get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's low at 0.1489, downside momentum could accelerate should the pair break out to new lows for the year. Further selling might move prices lower should the market test March's nearby low at 0.1512.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Closed above last periods high" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for TRY/EUR. Out of 381 times, TRYEUR closed lower 43.31% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 51.18% with an average market move of -0.42%.