THBUSD still stuck within tight trading range
Thai Baht/US Dollar (THBUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
THBUSD finished the month 2.86% higher at 0.03234 after losing 5 pips (-0.15%) today on low volume. Trading 5 pips higher after the open, the forex pair was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on June 26th, THBUSD actually gained 0.19% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (THBUSD as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 10 pips (0.31%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of 20 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for THBUSD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.03229 and 0.03247 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
After moving higher in the previous session, the pair closed lower but above the prior day's open today, forming a bearish Harami Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 0.03245 (R1). The market ran into sellers again today around 0.03243 for the third trading day in a row after having found sellers at 0.03242 in the previous session and at 0.03242 two days ago.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 0.03247 where further buy stops might get activated.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to prior two Highs" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for THB/USD. Out of 317 times, THBUSD closed higher 50.47% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.89% with an average market move of 0.05%.