THBUSD breaks below Thursday's low
Thai Baht/US Dollar (THBUSD) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, THBUSD finished the week 0.55% higher at 0.03134 after losing 5 pips (-0.16%) today. Closing below Thursday's low at 0.03135, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to 3 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (THBUSD as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 11 pips (0.35%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 15 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for THBUSD.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Short Candle and the Black Candle which are both known as bearish patterns. The last time a Bearish Short Candle showed up on November 20, 2018, THBUSD actually gained 0.26% on the following trading day.
Although the FX pair is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 0.03146 where further buy stops might get activated.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing High" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for THB/USD. Out of 1,129 times, THBUSD closed higher 49.78% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.32% with an average market move of 0.04%.