THBUSD still stuck within tight trading range
Thai Baht/US Dollar (THBUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, THBUSD finished the week 0.38% higher at 0.03204 after losing 7 pips (-0.22%) today. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (THBUSD as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 16 pips (0.5%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 23 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for THBUSD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.03185 and 0.03219 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Hikkake Pattern.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 0.03198 (S1). Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 0.03219 (R1). The currency ran into sellers again today around 0.03216 for the third trading day in a row after having found sellers at 0.03218 in the prior session and at 0.03219 two days ago. The last time this happened on January 23rd, THBUSD lost -0.21% on the following trading day.
While the forex pair is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 0.03219 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 0.03185 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to previous two Highs" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for THB/USD. Out of 318 times, THBUSD closed higher 49.69% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.29% with an average market move of 0.10%.