SGDUSD closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
Singapore Dollar/US Dollar (SGDUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 18, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
SGDUSD ended the week 0.63% higher at 0.7354 after losing 15 pips (-0.2%) today on high volume. Trading 10 pips higher after the open, the FX pair was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SGDUSD as at Sep 18, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 25 pips (0.34%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 30 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for SGDUSD.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle. The last time a Black Candle showed up on September 8th, SGDUSD actually gained 0.33% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 0.7338 (S1). Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 0.7375 (R1), the forex pair closed below it after spiking up to 0.7378 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels importance going forward.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 0.7337 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Black Candle" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for SGD/USD. Out of 574 times, SGDUSD closed higher 52.61% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after six trading days, showing a win rate of 52.09% with an average market move of 0.05%.