SGDNZD breaks back above 200-day moving average
Singapore Dollar/New Zealand Dollar (SGDNZD) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 20, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
SGDNZD ended Thursday at 1.1269 gaining 41 pips (0.37%) on high volume. Trading up to 56 pips lower after the open, the pair managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing above Wednesday's high at 1.1254, SGD/NZD confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to 34 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SGDNZD as at Feb 20, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been 116 pips (1.03%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of 72 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for SGDNZD.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar. The last time this happened on Monday, SGDNZD gained 0.55% on the following trading day. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Last Engulfing Top Pattern.
The currency managed to close back above the 200-day moving average at 1.1256 for the first time since February 11th. Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 1.1294 (R1).
While still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 1.1294 where further buy stops might get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's high at 1.1357, upside momentum could accelerate should the forex pair be able to break out to new highs for the year. Trading close to December's high at 1.1382 we might see further upside momentum if potential buy stops at the level get activated.
Among the 12 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Bullish Intraday Reversal" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for SGD/NZD. Out of 448 times, SGDNZD closed lower 53.35% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.90% with an average market move of -0.06%.