SGDJPY breaks back below 50-day moving average
Singapore Dollar/Japanese Yen (SGDJPY) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, SGDJPY finished the week 0.69% higher at 75.53 after losing 38 pips (-0.5%) today on low volume. Closing below Thursday's low at 75.86, SGD/JPY confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to 47 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SGDJPY as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 65 pips (0.86%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of 53 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for SGDJPY.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
After trading as low as 75.39 during the day, the pair found support at the 20-day moving average at 75.52. The last time this happened on April 13th, SGDJPY actually lost -0.39% on the following trading day. The forex pair closed back below the 50-day moving average at 75.70 for the first time since May 15th.
Although the market is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Selling could speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 74.94 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Black Candle" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for SGD/JPY. Out of 486 times, SGDJPY closed higher 56.79% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.94% with an average market move of 0.11%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are GBPUSD losing -0.47% and EURUSD closing -0.44% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCAD closing 0.33% higher and USDCHF gaining 0.08%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDCZK surging 1.09% and USDHUF closing 0.9% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDMXN tanking -0.58% and SGDHKD closing -0.51% lower. Read more