SGDHKD closes lower for the 3rd day in a row
Singapore Dollar/Hong Kong Dollar (SGDHKD) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, SGDHKD finished the month 1.35% higher at 5.5617 after edging lower 2 pips (-0.0%) today on low volume. Trading up to 157 pips lower after the open, the pair managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SGDHKD as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 195 pips (0.35%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of 275 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for SGDHKD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 5.5454 and 5.5871 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
Three candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Southern Doji and the Takuri Line which are both known as bullish patterns and one neutral pattern, the Doji. The last time a Takuri Line showed up on September 3, 2019, SGDHKD gained 0.40% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 5.5327 (S1). The market was bought again around 5.5454 after having seen lows at 5.5550, 5.5561 and 5.5587 in the last three trading sessions. Obviously there is something going on at that level.
Although still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 5.5742 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 5.5383 where further sell stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's low at 0.0009, downside momentum might accelerate should the currency break out to new lows for the year. As prices are trading close to June's high at 5.6147, upside momentum could speed up should the FX pair mark new highs for the month. Further selling might move prices lower should the market test May's close-by low at 5.4273.
Among the 14 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Low close to previous three Lows" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for SGD/HKD. Out of 67 times, SGDHKD closed higher 56.72% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.21% with an average market move of 0.57%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.82% and NZDUSD closing 0.53% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCAD closing -0.62% lower and USDCHF losing -0.41%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPZAR surging 1.31% and GBPJPY closing 1.16% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDNOK tanking -1.51% and EURGBP closing -0.9% lower. Read more