SGDHKD dominated by bears dragging the market lower throughout the day
Singapore Dollar/Hong Kong Dollar (SGDHKD) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 18, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
SGDHKD finished Tuesday at 5.5784 losing 131 pips (-0.23%). Today's close at 5.5784 marks the lowest recorded closing price since May 15, 2017. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Monday's low at 5.5813, SGD/HKD confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to 60 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SGDHKD as at Feb 18, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 189 pips (0.34%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 209 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently significantly higher than usual for SGDHKD.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Black Candle.
After trading down to 5.5753 earlier during the day, the currency bounced off the key technical support level at 5.5778 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels importance as support going forward. The pair ran into sellers again today around 5.5942 for the third trading day in a row after having found sellers at 5.5954 in the prior session and at 5.5943 two days ago. The last time this happened on January 10th, SGDHKD actually gained 0.22% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 5.5954 where further buy stops could get triggered.
Among the 11 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "52 Week Low" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for SGD/HKD. Out of 68 times, SGDHKD closed higher 57.35% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.35% with an average market move of 0.30%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are NZDUSD losing -0.78% and EURUSD closing -0.4% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCHF closing 0.24% higher and USDCAD gaining 0.19%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDSEK surging 0.99% and USDCZK closing 0.84% higher. The worst performers of the day have been NZDJPY tanking -0.79% and NZDHKD closing -0.78% lower. Read more