SGDGBP breaks back below 200-day moving average
Singapore Dollar/British Pound (SGDGBP) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, SGDGBP ended Thursday at 0.5725 tanking 90 pips (-1.55%). This is the biggest single-day loss in over a year. Closing below Wednesday's low at 0.5780, the market confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to 65 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SGDGBP as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been 142 pips (2.44%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 110 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently significantly higher than usual for SGDGBP.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
After trading as low as 0.5715 during the day, the pair found support at the 20-day moving average at 0.5722. The forex pair closed back below the 200-day moving average at 0.5754 for the first time since March 16th. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on March 16th, SGDGBP actually gained 1.20% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Close near low of period" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for SGD/GBP. Out of 485 times, SGDGBP closed higher 56.91% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.23% with an average market move of 0.25%.