SGDEUR breaks below Wednesday's low
Singapore Dollar/Euro (SGDEUR) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 20, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, SGDEUR finished Thursday at 0.6618 losing 18 pips (-0.27%) on high volume. Closing below Wednesday's low at 0.6632, the pair confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to 57 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SGDEUR as at Feb 20, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been 66 pips (0.99%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of 33 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for SGDEUR.
After trading as low as 0.6575 during the day, the currency found support at the 200-day moving average at 0.6581. The last time this happened on February 5th, SGDEUR actually lost -0.18% on the following trading day. The forex pair closed back below the 100-day moving average at 0.6633 for the first time since February 14th.
The FX pair shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 100" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for SGD/EUR. Out of 78 times, SGDEUR closed higher 53.85% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.69% with an average market move of 0.29%.