SGDCHF runs into sellers again around 0.6658
Singapore Dollar/Swiss Franc (SGDCHF) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
SGDCHF ended the month -2.25% lower at 0.6645 after gaining 21 pips (0.32%) today on high volume. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SGDCHF as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 49 pips (0.74%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of 38 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for SGDCHF.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar. Notwithstanding a weak opening SGD/CHF managed to close above the prior day's open and close, forming a bullish Engulfing Candle.
After having been unable to move above 0.6654 in the previous session, the forex pair ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 0.6658.
Crossing above the lower Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their downward momentum in the short-term and could now be heading back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 0.6722. The last time this happened on Wednesday, SGDCHF actually lost -0.30% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
With prices trading close to this year's low at 0.6608, downside momentum might accelerate should the FX pair break out to new lows for the year.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bullish Engulfing Candle" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for SGD/CHF. Out of 141 times, SGDCHF closed lower 56.74% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 51.06% with an average market move of -0.08%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are NZDUSD losing -1.04% and AUDUSD closing -0.72% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDJPY closing 1.12% higher and USDCHF gaining 0.48%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDZAR surging 1.87% and GBPZAR closing 1.79% higher. The worst performers of the day have been NZDCAD tanking -1.15% and NZDHKD closing -1.05% lower. Read more