SGDCHF dominated by bears dragging the market lower throughout the day
Singapore Dollar/Swiss Franc (SGDCHF) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
SGDCHF ended the month -0.12% lower at 0.6798 after losing 28 pips (-0.41%) today on low volume. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SGDCHF as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 49 pips (0.72%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 47 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for SGDCHF.
Notwithstanding a strong opening the FX pair closed below the prior day's open and close, forming a bearish Engulfing Candle. The last time this candlestick pattern showed up on June 4th, SGDCHF actually gained 1.07% on the following trading day. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 0.6775 (S1). After spiking up to 0.6836 during the day, the currency found resistance at the 50-day moving average at 0.6835. After having been unable to move lower than 0.6782 in the previous session, SGD/CHF found buyers again around the same price level today at 0.6787.
The pair shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 0.6782 where further sell stops could get triggered. As prices are trading close to June's low at 0.6748, downside momentum might accelerate should the forex pair mark new lows for the month.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Decisive Down Move" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for SGD/CHF. Out of 240 times, SGDCHF closed higher 55.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.25% with an average market move of 0.27%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.82% and NZDUSD closing 0.53% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCAD closing -0.62% lower and USDCHF losing -0.41%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPZAR surging 1.31% and GBPJPY closing 1.16% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDNOK tanking -1.51% and EURGBP closing -0.9% lower. Read more