SGDCHF runs into sellers around 0.7059 for the forth day in a row
Singapore Dollar/Swiss Franc (SGDCHF) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
SGDCHF ended the week 0.27% higher at 0.7055 after gaining 5 pips (0.07%) today. Trading up to 9 pips lower after the open, SGD/CHF managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SGDCHF as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 20 pips (0.28%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of 38 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for SGDCHF. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.7014 and 0.7059 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Hikkake Pattern.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 0.7059 (R1), the FX pair closed below it after spiking up to 0.7059 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels significance going forward. When prices bounced off a significant resistance level the last time on January 29th, SGDCHF lost -0.50% on the following trading day. The market was sold again around 0.7059 after having seen highs at 0.7058, 0.7059 and 0.7056 in the last three trading sessions. Obviously there is something going on at that level.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 0.7059 where further buy stops could get triggered. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 0.7026 where further sell stops could get activated. As prices are trading close to February's high at 0.7083, upside momentum might speed up should the forex pair mark new highs for the month.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to prior three Highs" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for SGD/CHF. Out of 57 times, SGDCHF closed higher 54.39% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 61.40% with an average market move of 0.15%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are USDCAD losing -0.12% and EURUSD closing -0.08% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCHF closing 0.28% higher and GBPUSD gaining 0.02%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDSEK surging 0.51% and EURSEK closing 0.43% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURHUF tanking -0.65% and USDHUF closing -0.58% lower. Read more