SGDAUD runs into sellers again around 1.0789
Singapore Dollar/Australian Dollar (SGDAUD) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
SGDAUD finished the week -1.71% lower at 1.0735 after losing 10 pips (-0.09%) today. Trading 42 pips higher after the open, the pair was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on May 14th, SGDAUD actually gained 0.46% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SGDAUD as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 59 pips (0.55%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of 100 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for SGDAUD.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Hikkake Pattern.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 1.0701 (S1). After having been unable to move above 1.0785 in the prior session, the FX pair ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 1.0789.
Though still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 1.0701 where further sell stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's low at 1.0585, downside momentum might accelerate should the currency break out to new lows for the year.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Down Close Near Low of Period" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for SGD/AUD. Out of 483 times, SGDAUD closed higher 55.69% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 51.76% with an average market move of 0.13%.