SGDAUD breaks below key technical support level
Singapore Dollar/Australian Dollar (SGDAUD) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 6th day in a row, SGDAUD ended Thursday at 1.1523 losing 70 pips (-0.6%). Trading 158 pips higher after the open, SGD/AUD was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on Monday, SGDAUD lost -1.02% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SGDAUD as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been 269 pips (2.32%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 308 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently significantly higher than usual for SGDAUD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 1.1391 and 1.1774 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
Prices broke below the key technical support level at 1.1577 (now R1), which is likely to act as resistance going forward.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 1.1391 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Close near low of period" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for SGD/AUD. Out of 500 times, SGDAUD closed higher 56.60% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.40% with an average market move of 0.18%.