SEKUSD finds buyers around 0.1065 for the forth day in a row
Swedish Krona/US Dollar (SEKUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
SEKUSD ended the month 1.13% higher at 0.1072 after flat today. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SEKUSD as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 12 pips (1.12%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 14 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently significantly lower than usual for SEKUSD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.1065 and 0.1081 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
Four candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Northern Doji which is known as bearish pattern and three neutral patterns, the Doji, the Long-Legged Doji and the Rickshaw-Man. The last time a Rickshaw-Man showed up on June 12th, SEKUSD gained 0.56% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 0.1081 (R1). The FX pair was bought again around 0.1065 after having seen lows at 0.1066, 0.1066 and 0.1066 in the last three trading sessions. Obviously there is something going on at that level.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 0.1078 where further buy stops could get activated. With prices trading close to this year's high at 0.1095, upside momentum might speed up should the pair be able to break out to new highs for the year. As prices are trading close to June's low at 0.1054, downside momentum could accelerate should the currency mark new lows for the month.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing High" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for SEK/USD. Out of 701 times, SEKUSD closed higher 47.50% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after eight trading days, showing a win rate of 51.21% with an average market move of 0.07%.