SEKUSD pushes through Thursday's high
Swedish Krona/US Dollar (SEKUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, SEKUSD ended the week 0.39% higher at 0.1020 after gaining 4 pips (0.39%) today on high volume. Closing above Thursday's high at 0.1019, the forex pair confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to 3 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SEKUSD as at Oct 11, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been 7 pips (0.69%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 8 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for SEKUSD.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
After trading down to 0.1015 earlier during the day, the market bounced off the key technical support level at 0.1016 (S1). The failure to close below the support might increase that levels importance as support going forward. When prices bounced off a significant support level the last time on September 17th, SEKUSD actually lost -0.58% on the following trading day. After spiking up to 0.1022 during the day, SEK/USD found resistance at the 20-day moving average at 0.1021.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Closed above last periods high" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for SEK/USD. Out of 545 times, SEKUSD closed lower 52.29% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.86% with an average market move of -0.29%.