SEKEUR closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
Swedish Krona/Euro (SEKEUR) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 23, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, SEKEUR ended the week unchanged at 0.0964 after losing 1 pip (-0.1%) today. Trading 2 pips higher after the open, the forex pair was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SEKEUR as at Oct 23, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 5 pips (0.52%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 6 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for SEKEUR.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Tweezer Top which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Bearish Spinning Top. The last time a Tweezer Top showed up on Monday, SEKEUR gained 0.52% on the following trading day.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 0.0967 (R1), the FX pair closed below it after spiking up to 0.0967 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels importance going forward. After having been unable to move lower than 0.0962 in the prior session, the pair found buyers again around the same price level today at 0.0962.
The market shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 0.0969 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 0.0959 where further sell stops could get triggered. Further buying might move prices higher should the market test September's close-by high at 0.0972.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "3 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for SEK/EUR. Out of 111 times, SEKEUR closed higher 52.25% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 47.75% with an average market move of 0.09%.