SEKEUR unable to break through key resistance level
Swedish Krona/Euro (SEKEUR) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, SEKEUR ended Thursday at 0.0965 losing 1 pip (-0.1%). Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SEKEUR as at Oct 22, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been 5 pips (0.52%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 6 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for SEKEUR. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.0962 and 0.0969 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
After trading as low as 0.0962 during the day, the market found support at the 100-day moving average at 0.0962. The last time this happened on October 15th, SEKEUR gained 0.21% on the following trading day. Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 0.0967 (R1), the FX pair closed below it after spiking up to 0.0967 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels importance going forward.
The forex pair shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 0.0969 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 0.0959 where further sell stops could get triggered. Further buying might move prices higher should the market test September's close-by high at 0.0972.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing High" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bearish for SEK/EUR. Out of 677 times, SEKEUR closed lower 45.20% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.65% with an average market move of -0.08%.