SEKEUR unable to break through key resistance level
Swedish Krona/Euro (SEKEUR) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
SEKEUR finished Wednesday at 0.0965 gaining 2 pips (0.21%) on low volume. Today's close at 0.0965 marks the highest recorded closing price since September 9th. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SEKEUR as at Oct 14, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been 4 pips (0.41%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of 7 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for SEKEUR.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar.
The FX pair managed to close above the 50-day moving average at 0.0963 for the first time since September 9th. When this moving average was crossed above the last time on September 9th, SEKEUR actually lost -0.41% on the following trading day. Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 0.0967 (R1), the pair closed below it after spiking up to 0.0967 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels significance going forward.
SEK/EUR shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 0.0968 where further buy stops might get triggered. Further buying could move prices higher should the market test September's nearby high at 0.0972.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Break through SMA 50" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for SEK/EUR. Out of 121 times, SEKEUR closed lower 49.59% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.72% with an average market move of -0.18%.