SEKEUR pushes through Thursday's high
Swedish Krona/Euro (SEKEUR) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 18, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
SEKEUR finished the week 0.21% higher at 0.0964 after gaining 2 pips (0.21%) today. Closing above Thursday's high at 0.0963, SEK/EUR confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to 3 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SEKEUR as at Sep 18, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 6 pips (0.62%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 6 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly lower than usual for SEKEUR. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.0958 and 0.0966 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
In spite of a weak opening the FX pair managed to close above the prior day's open and close, forming a bullish Engulfing Candle.
After spiking up to 0.0966 during the day, the pair found resistance at the 20-day moving average at 0.0966. The last time this happened on August 19th, SEKEUR lost -0.31% on the following trading day.
While the forex pair is currently in a short-term downtrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 0.0958 where further sell stops could get triggered. As prices are trading close to September's high at 0.0972, upside momentum might speed up should the market mark new highs for the month.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Closed above last periods high" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for SEK/EUR. Out of 461 times, SEKEUR closed lower 48.59% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.40% with an average market move of -0.20%.