SEKEUR closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
Swedish Krona/Euro (SEKEUR) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, SEKEUR finished the month 1.26% higher at 0.0967 after losing 2 pips (-0.21%) today on high volume. Trading 4 pips higher after the open, the market was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing below Thursday's low at 0.0968, the pair confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to 2 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SEKEUR as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 7 pips (0.72%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of 6 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for SEKEUR.
The currency closed below the 20-day moving average at 0.0967 for the first time since June 29th. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on June 29th, SEKEUR actually gained 0.21% on the following trading day.
Although SEK/EUR is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Down Close Near Low of Period" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for SEK/EUR. Out of 474 times, SEKEUR closed higher 53.38% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.01% with an average market move of 0.16%.