SEKEUR closes above its opening price after recovering from early selling pressure
Swedish Krona/Euro (SEKEUR) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
SEKEUR ended the week 1.39% higher at 0.0950 after flat today. Trading up to 3 pips lower after the open, the market managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. The last time this happened on May 14th, SEKEUR actually lost -0.74% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (SEKEUR as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 5 pips (0.53%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 8 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for SEKEUR. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.0944 and 0.0951 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Tweezer Top which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Last Engulfing Top Pattern.
After trading down to 0.0946 earlier during the day, the currency bounced off the key technical support level at 0.0947 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels importance as support going forward. SEK/EUR ran into sellers again today around 0.0951 for the third trading day in a row after having found sellers at 0.0951 in the prior session and at 0.0951 two days ago.
Although still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
With prices trading close to this year's high at 0.0957, upside momentum might speed up should the forex pair be able to break out to new highs for the year. Trading close to March's high at 0.0953 we could see further upside momentum if potential buy stops at the level get triggered.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Bullish Intraday Reversal" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for SEK/EUR. Out of 374 times, SEKEUR closed lower 50.27% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.75% with an average market move of -0.20%.