NZDUSD still stuck within tight trading range
New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar (NZDUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Apr 16, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
NZDUSD ended Tuesday at 0.6764 gaining 1 pip (0.01%). Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NZDUSD as at Apr 16, 2019):
Tuesday's trading range has been 28 pips (0.41%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 52 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for NZDUSD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.6714 and 0.6783 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Northern Doji which is known as bearish pattern and one neutral pattern, the Doji. The last time a Northern Doji showed up on March 22nd, NZDUSD actually gained 0.44% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 0.6739 (S1). Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 0.6783 (R1).
Though NZD/USD is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 0.6783 where further buy stops could get triggered. Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 0.6714 where further sell stops could get activated. As prices are trading close to April's high at 0.6838, upside momentum might accelerate should the pair mark new highs for the month.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for NZD/USD. Out of 706 times, NZDUSD closed higher 52.12% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 51.70% with an average market move of 0.07%.
With four out of the other six Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are GBPUSD losing -0.4% and EURUSD closing -0.2% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCHF closing 0.38% higher and AUDUSD gaining 0.03%. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been TRYJPY surging 0.57% and CADCHF closing 0.52% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURTRY tanking -0.82% and USDTRY closing -0.63% lower. Read more