NZDUSD unable to break through key resistance level
New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar (NZDUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 4th day in a row, NZDUSD ended Monday at 0.6733 losing 11 pips (-0.16%) on low volume. Today's close at 0.6733 marks the lowest recorded closing price since January 21st. Trading 31 pips higher after the open, the forex pair was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NZDUSD as at Feb 11, 2019):
Monday's trading range has been 46 pips (0.68%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 58 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for NZDUSD.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 0.6753 (R1), the FX pair closed below it after spiking up to 0.6773 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels importance going forward. After having been unable to move lower than 0.6730 in the previous session, the market found buyers again around the same price level today at 0.6727. The last time this happened on February 5th, NZDUSD actually lost -1.70% on the following trading day.
Although still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Down Close Near Low of Period" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for NZD/USD. Out of 491 times, NZDUSD closed higher 54.79% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.14% with an average market move of 0.33%.
With three of the other Major FX Pairs closing higher and three closing lower today, the winners of the day are USDJPY surging 0.57% and USDCHF gaining 0.37%. On the flipside the worst performers have been GBPUSD closing -0.63% lower and EURUSD losing -0.41%. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDZAR surging 1.38% and USDMXN closing 1.17% higher. The worst performers of the day have been ZARJPY tanking -0.74% and GBPHKD closing -0.63% lower. Read more