NZDJPY still stuck within tight trading range
New Zealand Dollar/Japanese Yen (NZDJPY) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 29, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
NZDJPY finished Monday at 69.07 gaining 20 pips (0.29%) on low volume. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NZDJPY as at Jun 29, 2020):
Monday's trading range has been 61 pips (0.89%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of 102 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably lower than usual for NZDJPY. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 68.42 and 69.67 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar. The last time this happened on June 22nd, NZDJPY actually lost -0.17% on the following trading day. Despite a weak opening the pair managed to close above the prior day's open and close, forming a bullish Engulfing Candle. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Short Candle and the White Candle which are both known as bullish patterns.
After having been unable to move lower than 68.64 in the previous session, NZD/JPY found buyers again around the same price level today at 68.62.
The forex pair shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 69.67 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 68.42 where further sell stops might get triggered.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bullish Outside Bar" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for NZD/JPY. Out of 123 times, NZDJPY closed higher 56.10% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.28% with an average market move of 0.27%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are USDCHF gaining 0.33% and USDJPY closing 0.33% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been GBPUSD closing -0.29% lower and USDCAD losing -0.2%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been EURJPY surging 0.55% and EURCHF closing 0.55% higher. The worst performers of the day have been GBPPLN tanking -0.78% and GBPCAD closing -0.5% lower. Read more