NZDCHF closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
New Zealand Dollar/Swiss Franc (NZDCHF) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 13, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
NZDCHF finished Monday at 0.6159 losing 28 pips (-0.45%). Trading 22 pips higher after the open, the currency was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing below Friday's low at 0.6162, the market confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to 5 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NZDCHF as at Jul 13, 2020):
Monday's trading range has been 49 pips (0.79%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 48 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for NZDCHF.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
After trading as low as 0.6157 during the day, NZD/CHF found support at the 200-day moving average at 0.6158. The pair found buyers again today around 0.6157 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 0.6162 in the previous session and at 0.6158 two days ago. The last time this happened on May 25th, NZDCHF gained 0.96% on the following trading day.
While still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 0.6150 where further sell stops could get triggered. As prices are trading close to July's low at 0.6100, downside momentum might accelerate should the FX pair mark new lows for the month.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Low close to prior two Lows" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for NZD/CHF. Out of 179 times, NZDCHF closed higher 54.19% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.54% with an average market move of 0.26%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are EURUSD gaining 0.38% and USDJPY closing 0.35% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been GBPUSD closing -0.54% lower and NZDUSD losing -0.52%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDMXN surging 1.42% and EURGBP closing 0.93% higher. The worst performers of the day have been GBPSGD tanking -0.58% and GBPHKD closing -0.56% lower. Read more