NZDCAD unable to break through key resistance level
New Zealand Dollar/Canadian Dollar (NZDCAD) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
NZDCAD finished Thursday at 0.8358 gaining 54 pips (0.65%). Trading up to 80 pips lower after the open, the pair managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. The last time this happened on March 16th, NZDCAD actually lost -0.46% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NZDCAD as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been 183 pips (2.2%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 201 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently significantly higher than usual for NZDCAD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.8224 and 0.8462 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
After moving lower in the previous session, NZD/CAD managed to close higher but below the prior day's open, forming a bullish Harami Candle.
After trading down to 0.8224 earlier during the day, the forex pair bounced off the key technical support level at 0.8261 (S1). The failure to close below the support might increase that levels significance as support going forward. Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 0.8367 (R1), the market closed below it after spiking up to 0.8407 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels importance going forward.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 0.8462 where further buy stops could get triggered.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Resistance R1" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for NZD/CAD. Out of 594 times, NZDCAD closed lower 53.54% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.53% with an average market move of -0.07%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 2.72% and NZDUSD closing 1.88% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCHF closing -1.43% lower and USDJPY losing -1.42%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPHKD surging 2.72% and GBPZAR closing 2.65% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDMXN tanking -4.12% and USDNOK closing -3.12% lower. Read more