NZDCAD declines to lowest close since November 12, 2019
New Zealand Dollar/Canadian Dollar (NZDCAD) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 25, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
NZDCAD ended Tuesday at 0.8395 losing 34 pips (-0.4%) on high volume. Today's close at 0.8395 marks the lowest recorded closing price since November 12, 2019. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NZDCAD as at Feb 25, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 61 pips (0.72%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 55 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for NZDCAD.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 0.8352 (S1). Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 0.8429 (R1), the forex pair closed below it after spiking up to 0.8446 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels importance going forward. When prices bounced off a significant resistance level the last time on February 5th, NZDCAD lost -0.22% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling could speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 0.8352 where further sell stops might get triggered.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Resistance R1" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for NZD/CAD. Out of 586 times, NZDCAD closed lower 53.58% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.24% with an average market move of -0.07%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are USDJPY losing -0.47% and NZDUSD closing -0.3% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been GBPUSD closing 0.58% higher and EURUSD gaining 0.25%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPZAR surging 1.14% and GBPNZD closing 0.89% higher. The worst performers of the day have been ZARJPY tanking -0.96% and TRYJPY closing -0.88% lower. Read more