NZDAUD closes lower for the 2nd day in a row
New Zealand Dollar/Australian Dollar (NZDAUD) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, NZDAUD ended the month 0.48% higher at 0.9350 after edging lower 1 pip (-0.01%) today on low volume. Trading 12 pips higher after the open, the pair was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NZDAUD as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 34 pips (0.36%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of 53 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for NZDAUD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.9328 and 0.9370 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Southern Doji which is known as bullish pattern and one neutral pattern, the Doji. The last time a Southern Doji showed up on May 14th, NZDAUD actually lost -0.36% on the following trading day.
The FX pair managed to close back above the 50-day moving average at 0.9349 for the first time since June 23rd. The forex pair closed back below the 20-day moving average at 0.9353. The currency was sold again around 0.9363 after having seen highs at 0.9370, 0.9369 and 0.9368 in the last three trading sessions. Obviously there is something going on at that level.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 0.9370 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 0.9297 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to previous two Highs" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for NZD/AUD. Out of 186 times, NZDAUD closed higher 58.60% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.99% with an average market move of 0.12%.