NOKUSD closes above its opening price after recovering from early selling pressure
Norwegian Krone/US Dollar (NOKUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 10, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
NOKUSD ended the week 0.47% higher at 0.1060 after gaining 4 pips (0.38%) today. Trading up to 9 pips lower after the open, the pair managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. The last time this happened on July 1st, NOKUSD actually lost -0.19% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NOKUSD as at Jul 10, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 16 pips (1.52%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 18 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for NOKUSD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.1047 and 0.1071 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
After trading as low as 0.1047 during the day, the forex pair found support at the 200-day moving average at 0.1051.
Though still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 0.1071 where further buy stops might get activated.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Bounce off SMA 200" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for NOK/USD. Out of 33 times, NOKUSD closed lower 54.55% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 69.70% with an average market move of -0.70%.