NOKUSD closes higher for the 4th day in a row
Norwegian Krone/US Dollar (NOKUSD) Technical Analysis Report for May 29, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 4th day in a row, NOKUSD ended the month 5.33% higher at 0.1028 after gaining 5 pips (0.49%) today on high volume. Today's close at 0.1028 marks the highest recorded closing price since March 11th. Closing above Thursday's high at 0.1027, the currency confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to 7 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NOKUSD as at May 29, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 13 pips (1.27%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 15 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for NOKUSD.
Crossing below the upper Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their upward momentum in the short-term and might now be heading back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 0.0993. The last time this happened on May 21st, NOKUSD lost -0.60% on the following trading day.
Though still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "4 Consecutive Higher Closes" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for NOK/USD. Out of 74 times, NOKUSD closed lower 52.70% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 62.16% with an average market move of -0.80%.