NOKEUR finds support at 100-day moving average
Norwegian Krone/Euro (NOKEUR) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, NOKEUR finished the month -0.11% lower at 0.0925 after gaining 6 pips (0.65%) today on low volume. Closing above Monday's high at 0.0922, NOK/EUR confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to 9 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NOKEUR as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 18 pips (1.96%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of 14 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for NOKEUR. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.0913 and 0.0932 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar. Even with a weak opening the currency managed to close above the previous day's open and close, forming a bullish Engulfing Candle.
After trading as low as 0.0913 during the day, the forex pair found support at the 100-day moving average at 0.0913. The last time this happened on June 25th, NOKEUR actually lost -0.65% on the following trading day. The pair was bought again around 0.0913 after having seen lows at 0.0914, 0.0914 and 0.0914 in the last three trading sessions. Obviously there is something going on at that level.
The market shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
As prices are trading close to June's low at 0.0907, downside momentum could accelerate should the FX pair mark new lows for the month.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Bounce off SMA 100" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for NOK/EUR. Out of 113 times, NOKEUR closed higher 49.56% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after nine trading days, showing a win rate of 56.64% with an average market move of 0.02%.