JPYUSD still stuck within tight trading range

Japanese Yen/US Dollar (JPYUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team


JPYUSD dominated by bulls lifting the market higher throughout the day
JPYUSD unable to break through key resistance level
JPYUSD closes higher for the 3rd day in a row
JPYUSD pushes through Wednesday's high
JPYUSD still stuck within tight trading range


Moving higher for the 3rd day in a row, JPYUSD finished Thursday at 0.009122 gaining 130 pips (1.45%) on low volume. The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Wednesday's high at 0.009029, the pair confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to 128 pips above it intraday.

Daily Candlestick Chart (JPYUSD as at Mar 26, 2020):

Daily technical analysis candlestick chart for Japanese Yen/US Dollar (JPYUSD) as at Mar 26, 2020

Thursday's trading range has been 172 pips (1.91%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 191 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for JPYUSD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.008951 and 0.009157 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.

Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the White Candle which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Bearish Hikkake Pattern. The last time a Bearish Hikkake Pattern showed up on February 27th, JPYUSD actually gained 1.41% on the following trading day.

Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 0.009129 (R1), the forex pair closed below it after spiking up to 0.009157 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels importance going forward.

The FX pair shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.

With prices trading close to this year's low at 0.008910, downside momentum might accelerate should the market break out to new lows for the year.

Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Decisive Up Move" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for JPY/USD. Out of 236 times, JPYUSD closed lower 52.97% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.66% with an average market move of -0.33%.

Market Conditions for JPYUSD as at Mar 26, 2020

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