JPYUSD still stuck within tight trading range
Japanese Yen/US Dollar (JPYUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, JPYUSD ended the week -0.03% lower at 0.009109 after gaining 4 pips (0.04%) today. Trading up to 8 pips lower after the open, the pair managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (JPYUSD as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 18 pips (0.2%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of 37 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for JPYUSD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.009078 and 0.009127 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
During the whole day, prices traded within the previous day's range, unable to trade above the prior day's high or below the previous day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top. The last time a Bullish Spinning Top showed up on January 30th, JPYUSD gained 0.54% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 0.009129 (R1).
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 0.009122 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 0.009078 where further sell stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's low at 0.009067, downside momentum might speed up should the currency break out to new lows for the year.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Bullish Intraday Reversal" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for JPY/USD. Out of 375 times, JPYUSD closed higher 51.47% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after nine trading days, showing a win rate of 52.00% with an average market move of 0.07%.