JPYNZD runs into sellers again around 0.014409
Japanese Yen/New Zealand Dollar (JPYNZD) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, JPYNZD ended Thursday at 0.014286 losing 84 pips (-0.58%). Closing below Wednesday's low at 0.014335, the market confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to 70 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (JPYNZD as at Oct 22, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been 144 pips (1.0%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of 117 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for JPYNZD.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
After trading as low as 0.014265 during the day, the currency found support at the 100-day moving average at 0.014280. JPY/NZD closed back below the 20-day moving average at 0.014331 for the first time since October 14th. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on October 9th, JPYNZD actually gained 0.59% on the following trading day. After having been unable to move above 0.014424 in the previous session, the forex pair ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 0.014409.
Though the pair is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
As prices are trading close to October's low at 0.014182, downside momentum could speed up should the FX pair mark new lows for the month.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Closed below last periods low" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for JPY/NZD. Out of 634 times, JPYNZD closed lower 54.26% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.79% with an average market move of -0.12%.