JPYNZD breaks back below 20-day moving average
Japanese Yen/New Zealand Dollar (JPYNZD) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, JPYNZD finished the month -3.97% lower at 0.014355 after losing 123 pips (-0.85%) today on low volume. Closing below Monday's low at 0.014445, the FX pair confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to 104 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (JPYNZD as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 196 pips (1.35%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 203 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently significantly lower than usual for JPYNZD.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 0.014282 (S1). The market closed back below the 20-day moving average at 0.014393 for the first time since June 23rd. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on June 22nd, JPYNZD actually gained 0.17% on the following trading day.
Although still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Closed below last periods low" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for JPY/NZD. Out of 632 times, JPYNZD closed lower 54.11% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.11% with an average market move of -0.12%.