JPYNZD unable to break through key resistance level
Japanese Yen/New Zealand Dollar (JPYNZD) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, JPYNZD ended the week -0.51% lower at 0.014158 after gaining 14 pips (0.1%) today on low volume. Trading up to 18 pips lower after the open, the FX pair managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing above Thursday's high at 0.014152, JPY/NZD confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to 26 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (JPYNZD as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 52 pips (0.37%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of 122 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for JPYNZD.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Bearish Hikkake Pattern. The last time a Bullish Spinning Top showed up on February 6th, JPYNZD gained 1.08% on the following trading day.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 0.014176 (R1), the pair closed below it after spiking up to 0.014178 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels importance going forward.
The currency shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
With prices trading close to this year's high at 0.014296, upside momentum could accelerate should the forex pair be able to break out to new highs for the year.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Bullish Intraday Reversal" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for JPY/NZD. Out of 350 times, JPYNZD closed lower 59.14% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.00% with an average market move of -0.20%.