JPYEUR closes lower for the 3rd day in a row
Japanese Yen/Euro (JPYEUR) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, JPYEUR ended the month -2.78% lower at 0.008019 after losing 41 pips (-0.51%) today on high volume. Today's close at 0.008019 marks the lowest recorded closing price since May 1, 2019. Closing below Thursday's low at 0.008052, the market confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to 65 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (JPYEUR as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 88 pips (1.09%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of 58 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for JPYEUR.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 0.008065 (R1), the forex pair closed below it after spiking up to 0.008075 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels importance going forward. When prices bounced off a significant resistance level the last time on July 1st, JPYEUR actually gained 0.08% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "RSI(14) below 30" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for JPY/EUR. Out of 33 times, JPYEUR closed lower 57.58% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.55% with an average market move of -0.66%.