JPYCHF crashes, losing 66 pips (-0.75%) within a single day
Japanese Yen/Swiss Franc (JPYCHF) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
JPYCHF finished the month -1.51% lower at 0.008777 after tanking 66 pips (-0.75%) today. This is the biggest single-day loss in over three weeks. Today's close at 0.008777 marks the lowest recorded closing price since June 4th. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Monday's low at 0.008799, JPY/CHF confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to 28 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (JPYCHF as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 83 pips (0.94%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of 64 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for JPYCHF.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Black Candle. The last time a Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern showed up on June 2nd, JPYCHF actually lost -0.33% on the following trading day.
The FX pair was sold again around 0.008854 after having seen highs at 0.008852, 0.008875 and 0.008867 in the last three trading sessions. Obviously there is something going on at that level.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 0.008875 where further buy stops might get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's low at 0.008725, downside momentum could speed up should the market break out to new lows for the year. Further buying might move prices higher should the market test May's close-by high at 0.009200.
Among the 14 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for JPY/CHF. Out of 81 times, JPYCHF closed higher 59.26% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after two trading days, showing a win rate of 55.56% with an average market move of 0.01%.