JPYCHF drops to lowest close since February 21st
Japanese Yen/Swiss Franc (JPYCHF) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 6th day in a row, JPYCHF ended Thursday at 0.008782 edging lower 4 pips (-0.05%). Today's close at 0.008782 marks the lowest recorded closing price since February 21st. Trading 72 pips higher after the open, the pair was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (JPYCHF as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been 86 pips (0.98%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 130 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for JPYCHF.
Four candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Southern Doji and the Tweezer Bottom which are both known as bullish patterns, one bearish pattern, the Gravestone Doji and one neutral pattern, the Doji. The last time a Tweezer Bottom showed up on January 10th, JPYCHF actually lost -0.61% on the following trading day.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 0.008830 (R2), the FX pair closed below it after spiking up to 0.008858 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels importance going forward. JPY/CHF found buyers again today around 0.008772 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 0.008772 in the prior session and at 0.008789 two days ago.
The forex pair shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
With prices trading close to this year's low at 0.008742, downside momentum could speed up should the market break out to new lows for the year. Further selling might move prices lower should the market test February's close-by low at 0.008750.
Among the 13 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "6 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for JPY/CHF. Out of 22 times, JPYCHF closed lower 77.27% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 63.64% with an average market move of -0.49%.