JPYCAD breaks back below 100-day moving average
Japanese Yen/Canadian Dollar (JPYCAD) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
JPYCAD finished Thursday at 0.012533 losing 36 pips (-0.29%). Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (JPYCAD as at Oct 22, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been 77 pips (0.61%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 87 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for JPYCAD.
After trading down to 0.012517 earlier during the day, the FX pair bounced off the key technical support level at 0.012520 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels significance as support going forward. The currency closed back below the 100-day moving average at 0.012559. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on October 7th, JPYCAD lost -0.50% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
As prices are trading close to October's low at 0.012399, downside momentum might accelerate should the pair mark new lows for the month.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 100" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for JPY/CAD. Out of 81 times, JPYCAD closed higher 55.56% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.32% with an average market move of 0.05%.