JPYCAD finds buyers again around 0.012536
Japanese Yen/Canadian Dollar (JPYCAD) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 18, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 5th day in a row, JPYCAD ended the week 1.72% higher at 0.012626 after gaining 57 pips (0.45%) today. Today's close at 0.012626 marks the highest recorded closing price since August 7th. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (JPYCAD as at Sep 18, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 114 pips (0.91%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 106 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for JPYCAD.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar. The last time this happened on September 3rd, JPYCAD actually lost -0.53% on the following trading day. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
Buyers managed to take out the key technical resistance level at 0.012612 (now S1), which is likely to act as support going forward. After spiking up to 0.012650 during the day, the FX pair found resistance at the 100-day moving average at 0.012645. After having been unable to move lower than 0.012544 in the prior session, the market found buyers again around the same price level today at 0.012536.
Crossing above the upper Bollinger Band for the first time since Wednesday, prices have shown unusually strong upward momentum in the short-term. This could either indicate a potential buying climax after which prices might head back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 0.012417 or signal the beginning of a strong momentum breakout leading to even higher prices.
Though the forex pair is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Further buying might move prices higher should the market test August's close-by high at 0.012708.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close above the upper Bollinger Band" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for JPY/CAD. Out of 516 times, JPYCAD closed lower 50.58% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.59% with an average market move of -0.18%.