JPYCAD breaks back below 20-day moving average
Japanese Yen/Canadian Dollar (JPYCAD) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, JPYCAD finished the month -1.51% lower at 0.012577 after tanking 121 pips (-0.95%) today. This is the biggest single-day loss in over three weeks. The last time we've seen such an unusually strong single-day loss on June 2nd, JPYCAD lost -0.38% on the following trading day. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Monday's low at 0.012679, the FX pair confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to 110 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (JPYCAD as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 150 pips (1.18%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 135 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for JPYCAD.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
The market closed back below the 20-day moving average at 0.012599 for the first time since June 16th.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 20" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for JPY/CAD. Out of 167 times, JPYCAD closed higher 55.69% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.10% with an average market move of 0.26%.