INRUSD closes lower for the 2nd day in a row
Indian Rupee/US Dollar (INRUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 12, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, INRUSD ended the week -0.12% lower at 0.014607 after losing 19 pips (-0.13%) today. Closing below Thursday's low at 0.014615, INR/USD confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to 33 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (INRUSD as at Jul 12, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been 64 pips (0.44%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 73 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for INRUSD.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
After trading down to 0.014582 earlier during the day, the currency bounced off the key technical support level at 0.014585 (S1). The failure to close below the support might increase that levels importance as support going forward. When prices bounced off a significant support level the last time on July 4th, INRUSD gained 0.16% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 0.014540 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "2 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for INR/USD. Out of 332 times, INRUSD closed higher 55.12% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after two trading days, showing a win rate of 57.53% with an average market move of 0.03%.