HUFUSD breaks back above 100-day moving average
Hungarian Forint/US Dollar (HUFUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
HUFUSD ended the month -1.12% lower at 0.0031689 after gaining 146 pips (0.46%) today. Trading up to 165 pips lower after the open, the pair managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (HUFUSD as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 447 pips (1.42%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 402 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for HUFUSD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.0031370 and 0.0031817 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar. Despite a weak opening the market managed to close above the prior day's open and close, forming a bullish Engulfing Candle.
The currency managed to close back above the 100-day moving average at 0.0031597. When this moving average was crossed above the last time on May 29th, HUFUSD gained 0.75% on the following trading day. After having been unable to move above 0.0031761 in the previous session, HUF/USD ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 0.0031817.
Crossing above the lower Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their downward momentum in the short-term and could now be heading back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 0.0032410.
The forex pair shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bullish Outside Bar" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for HUF/USD. Out of 149 times, HUFUSD closed lower 51.01% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 61.74% with an average market move of -0.44%.